Wednesday, 3 June 2015

“The common question that gets asked in business is, ‘why?’
 That’s a good question, but an equally valid question is, ‘why not?’”
  Jeff Bezos 
Often times when discussing an investment, the focus of most on-air and in writings is to analyze a trade idea from the perspective of how it can behave on its own, rather than in the context of an overall portfolio.
As I continue to travel the country presenting to Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Market Technicians Association (MTA) chapters, I can tell you unequivocally that what matters if not the merit of a single investment play, but how it relates to other asset classes.
This is often not fully captured by people who manage their own portfolios, or use financial advisers. The interaction of investments to each other can matter more than how an individual investment behaves in isolation. This applies to strategies as well. Buy and hold investing in U.S. stocks may be the only thing people care about now, but the reality is that when paired up against other asset classes and strategies, an overall portfolio might produce better risk-adjusted returns beyond the small sample of time we all live in. In other words, diversification still matters.
Why am I bringing all this up? Because there are few areas of the investible landscape which are noncorrelated. Some strategies can help mitigate correlation in an era when everyone wants correlation. Our alternative inflation rotation and equity beta rotation strategies used in our mutual funds and separate accounts attempt to do this through aggressively defensive positioning with an active tactical approach which is primarily based on leading indicators of volatility. But what about from an asset class perspective?
It turns out gold US:GCJ5 fits the bill.
We all know about the role of gold historically as a form of currency and medium of exchange. I am not looking at gold from that perspective, but rather from one that answers the question practically of why gold matters. Put simply, gold matters because it historically doesn't really correlate to macro variables and the stock market, something which I'm writing about for a new white paper to come.
Take a look below at the rolling 24-Month correlation of the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, -0.24%  to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, +0.49% Note that going back to 1968, gold's correlation changes to stocks, and for the most part has no real consistent relationship to equities.
This is important because true diversification doesn't mean simply owning 500 stocks in the S&P. True diversification is about including noncorrelated areas which can zig when something else in a portfolio zags. Personally, I happen to think gold can be a particularly interesting investment now purely because of how much it has underperformed equities since the summer crash of 2011, but whether it outperforms or not is somewhat meaningless. What matters is how gold behaves relative to equities, and how that movement can smooth out overall portfolio volatility over long periods.
An exciting year lies ahead, and for risk management, a “golden era” may soon come.
This writing is for informational purposes only and doesn't constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

Monday, 1 June 2015

vishwakarma

In the Vedas

Vishwakarma is visualized as Ultimate reality (later developed as Brahman) in the Rig Veda,[2] from whose navel all visible things Hiranyagarbha emanate. The same imagery is seen in Yajurveda purusha sukta, in which the divine smith Tvastar emerging from Vishwakarma.[3] In the later puranic period this concept paved the way to the imagery of Padmanabha and Sadasiva.
In the Vedic period the term first appeared as an epithet of Indra, Surya, and Agni. In that time the later developed creator concept of Brahma might have been intertwined with the concept of Vastospati and Bṛhaspati, or Brahmanaspathi[4] In the last phase of vedic period and during the growth of monotheism, this realistic God concept becoming more abstract and one can see Vishwakarma [the invisible creative power] emerged as the supreme god[5] who was perceived as a hotar, the unborn [Aja] creator and name giver of all other gods who have lot of faces, eyes and feet on every side; and who helps Tvashtar,[the visible creative power of viswakarma] in producing all the Heavenly, Earthly and other Celestial realms and preserves them through the exercise of his arms and wings. He sacrificed himself to himself for the evolution of this visible world, thus he is Purusha or Narayana[6] His attributes like Vachaspathy[7] connect him with Brahaspathi (the Guru of Gods). Again, Yajurveda pictured him as the Prajapati[8] and in the Atharva veda he is [9] mentioned as Pashupati. Shwethashwatharopanishad described him as Rudrasiva, the one who is dwelling in all living forms.[10] Na Bhoomir Na Jalam Chaiva Na Teejo Nacha Vaayavaha Na chakasam na chitthasha Na budhi khrana gocharam Nacha Brahmaa Na Vishnuscha Na Rudrascha Taarakaaha Sarvashoonya niralambam Swayambhu Viswakarmana.
According to the above hymn, from Moolastambha purana which is something similar to Nasadeeya suktha It/He was the one who created himself from thyself when there was no earth, water, light, air and akasha,and even the Thrimurthies Later in the post vedic and brahmanic period, the term Vishwakarma is appeared both as the Rsi and the Silpi. In yajurveda the term is seen as one of names of pancha risis. Though the term is an epithet of suryanarayana, one of the seven rays of Surya is also known as Viswakarma. Bhuvana Vishwakarma (Atharva/Angirasa Gothra) is a vedic Rsi who was the author of Rg 10-81,82 suktha, (Prabasa Vishwakarma) was probably a silpi and the son of Prabhas, the eighth hermit of the legendary Astam vasu and Yogasiddha, sister of Brihaspati. He is said to have revealed the Sthapatya Veda / Vastu Shastra or fourth Upa-veda, and presides over the sixty-four mechanical arts.

Vishvakarma [ God ] created five prajapathies — from his five faces such as Sadyojāta,Vāmadeva, Aghora,Tatpuruṣha,Īsāna.[11] They are Manu, Maya, Twosta, Silpy, Viswajna and their respective Rishis are
  1. Sanaga Brahma Rishi
  2. Sanaathana Brahma Rishi
  3. Ahbhuvanasa Brahma Rishi
  4. Prathnasa Brahma Rishi
  5. Suparnasa Brahma Rishi
and created five Vedas:- from his five faces such as RigVeda, SamaVeda, YajurVeda, AtharvanaVeda, PranavaVeda.
In later puranas he is sometimes identified with vedic Tvastar.[12] Silpi Vishwakarma is the designer of all the flying chariots of the gods, and all their weapons and divine attributes. Vishwakarma/Tvostar is also credited with creating the missiles used in the mythological era, including the Vajra, the sacred weapon of Lord Indra, from the bones of sage Dadhichi. He is regarded as the supreme worker, the very essence of excellence and quality in craftsmanship.[13]

Vishwakarma Puja


Vishwakarma temple in Mandi, Himachal Pradesh, India.
Since Vishwakarma is the divine engineer of the world, as a mark of reverence, he is not only worshiped by the engineering and architectural community but also by all professionals. It is customary for craftsmen to worship their tools in his name.
Silpy Vishwakarma is attributed a putative birthday by the Hindu religion. The more philosophical minded argue that it is impossible for the original Creator of everything to be born on a particular day. In rig veda he is described as Swayambhu[14] So it is a contradiction in terms since that presupposes another creator for Vishwakarma. The Vishwakarma Puja is celebrated in all parts of India, especially in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Odisha, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Dehradun and Manipur.
Even among those who believe that there is a birthday there is no agreement as to when it actually occurs. Visvakarma birthday is celebrated on two days under different names:
  • Rishi Panchami Dinam. "Rishi Panchami Dinam" literally means ‘the day of the solidarity of five rishis.’ Those who celebrate this day believe that Vishwakarma did not have a birthday like the mortals but only a commemoration day in which his five children (supposedly five rishis) came together to declare their solidarity and pray to their illustrious father. This day follows the rules of the Hindu calendar and changes with every year. The five groups among the Vishwakarma community also celebrate this as an auspicious day in commemoration of their patron god at present.[15]
  • Visvakarma Jayanthi. Vishwakarma Jayanthi is celebrated by all industrial houses, artists, craftsmen, and weavers. The festival is observed on the Kanya Sankranti Day (September 17) which follows the Ganesh Puja. It was on this particular day that the forefathers of the present Visvakarma people invented the plough and gave it to humanity. The plough represents both the artisan trade as well as agriculture and therefore becomes the representative symbol of the ancient Indian civilisation. It changed the course of human history altogether. This was a change from ‘local mob culture to universal human culture’ and Vishwakarmas of India pioneered it. Coincidentally, this also becomes the birthday of Rsi/Silpi Visvakarma. So Indians in the past celebrated this day of many illustrious conjunctions as an occasion to honor Vishwakarma and his descendants.
  • Vishwakarma Day also known as Vishwakarma Jayanti or Vishwakarma Puja is a day of celebration for Vishwakarma, a Hindu god, the divine architect,[1] and one of the fourteen precious things born of the Samudra manthan. He constructed the holy city of Dwarka where Krishna ruled, the Maya Sabha of the Pandavas, and was the creator of many fabulous weapons for the gods. He is also called the divine carpenter, is mentioned in the Rig Veda, and is credited with Sthapatya Veda, the science of mechanics and architecture.
    It is celebrated generally on 17 September in Indian states such as Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orrisa, and Tripura. The festival is observed primarily in factories and industrial areas, often on the shop floor. As a mark of reverence the day of worship is marked not only by the engineering and architectural community but by artisans, craftsmen, mechanics, smiths, welders, industrial workers, factory workers and others. They pray for a better future, safe working conditions and, above all, success in their respective fields. Workers also pray for the smooth functioning of various machines. It is customary for craftsmen to worship their tools in his name, refraining from using the tools while doing so. Modern electronic servers are also worshipped for their smooth functioning.
    Special statues and pictures of Vishwakarma are normally installed in every workplace and factory. All workers gather in one common place and perform the puja (reverence).
    Vishwakarma puja is also celebrated a day after Diwali, along with Govardhan Puja in the month of October-November.
A goldsmith is a metalworker who specializes in working with gold and other precious metals. Historically, goldsmiths also have made silverware, platters, goblets, decorative and serviceable utensils, and ceremonial or religious items, but the rising prices of precious metals have curtailed the making of such items to a large degree.
Goldsmiths must be skilled in forming metal through filing, soldering, sawing, forging, casting, and polishing metal. Traditionally, these skills had been passed along through apprenticeships, however, more recently jewelry arts schools specializing solely in teaching goldsmithing and a multitude of skills falling under the jewelry arts umbrella are available. Many universities and junior colleges also offer goldsmithing, silversmithing, and metal arts fabrication as a part of their fine arts

 History

A goldsmith workshop during the mid-seventeenth century
Gold has been worked by humans in all cultures where the metal is available, either indigenously or imported, and the history of these activities is extensive. Superbly made objects from the ancient cultures of Africa, Asia, Europe, India, North America, Mesoamerica, and South America grace museums and collections throughout the world. Some pieces date back thousands of years and were made using many techniques that still are used by modern goldsmiths. Techniques developed by some of those goldsmiths achieved a skill level that was lost and remained beyond the skills of those who followed, even to modern times.[1] Researchers attempting to uncover the chemical techniques used by ancient artisans have remarked that their findings confirm that "the high level of competence reached by the artists and craftsmen of these ancient periods who produced objects of an artistic quality that could not be bettered in ancient times and has not yet been reached in modern ones."[2]
In medieval Europe goldsmiths were organized into guilds and usually were one of the most important and wealthiest of the guilds in a city. The guild kept records of members and the marks they used on their products. These records, when they survive, are very useful to historians. Goldsmiths often acted as bankers, since they dealt in gold and had sufficient security for the safe storage of valuable items. In the Middle Ages, goldsmithing normally included silversmithing as well, but the brass workers and workers in other base metals normally were members of a separate guild, since the trades were not allowed to overlap. Many jewelers also were goldsmiths.
Gold and silver smith in Lucknow, India 1890
The Khudabadi Sindhi Swarankar community is one of the oldest communities in goldsmithing in India, whose superb gold artworks were displayed at The Great Exhibition of 1851 in London. In India, 'Vishwakarma' are the goldsmith caste.
The printmaking technique of engraving developed among goldsmiths in Germany around 1430, who had long used the technique on their metal pieces. The notable engravers of the fifteenth century were either goldsmiths, such as Master E. S., or the sons of goldsmiths, such as Martin Schongauer and Albrecht Dürer.

Contemporary goldsmithing

A goldsmith might have a wide array of skills and knowledge at their disposal. Gold, being the most malleable metal of all, offers unique opportunities for the worker. In today's world a wide variety of other metals, especially platinum alloys, also may be used frequently. 24 Carat is pure gold and historically, was known as fine gold.[3]
Because it is so soft, however, 24 Carat gold is rarely used. It usually is alloyed to make it stronger and to create different colors; goldsmiths may have some skill in that process. The gold may be cast into some item then, usually with the lost wax casting process, or it may be used to fabricate the work directly in metal.
In the latter case, the goldsmith will use a variety of tools and machinery, including the rolling mill, the drawplate, and perhaps, swage blocks and other forming tools to make the metal into shapes needed to build the intended piece. Then parts are fabricated through a wide variety of processes and assembled by soldering. It is a testament to the history and evolution of the trade that those skills have reached an extremely high level of attainment and skill over time. A fine goldsmith can and will work to a tolerance approaching that of precision machinery, but largely using only his eyes and hand tools. Quite often the goldsmith's job involves the making of mountings for gemstones, in which case they often are referred to as jewelers.
'Jeweller', however, is a term mostly reserved for a person who deals in jewellery (buys and sells) and not to be confused with a goldsmith, silversmith, gemologist, diamond cutter, and diamond setters. A 'jobbing jeweller' is the term for a jeweller who undertakes a small basic amount of jewellery repair and alteration.
Gold prices are set to rise next week, according to several analysts, as the precious metal has managed to hold above its near-term resistance despite a stronger US dollar.
In a busy week for economic data, analysts will be watching for the yellow metal's reaction to the ECB interest rate decision on 3 June, the BoE rate decision on 4 June, and US employment data due out on 5 June.
Market watchers will also be tracking developments in China, the world's top producer and consumer of the metal, where an equities rally has dented the demand for gold.
Of the 33 market experts polled by a Kitco News Survey, 20 responded this week. Thirteen participants were bullish on prices, three bearish and four neutral on prices. Experts included bullion dealers, futures traders and technical-chart analysts. Respondents included futures traders, bullion dealers and investment bankers.
Meanwhile, of the 512 votes polled in a separate Kitco online survey, 230 participants, or 45%, said they expected higher gold prices next week. As many as 186 were bearish on prices, while 96 were neutral.
Analysts' take
Ken Morrison, editor of Morrison on the Markets, Ralph Preston of Heritage West Financial and Colin Cieszynski from CMC Markets, said in their survey responses that gold's ability to hold support is positive in the short term.
George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Wealth Management, told Kitco that he was slightly bullish on gold next week as the market had already priced in higher interest rates, limiting gold's downside; and that any increase in wages in 5 June's US employment report could be seen as positive for gold because it is considered inflationary.
Preston said: "As of this moment it does not appear as if we will be breaking through 1,170 to the down side anytime soon."
Cieszynski added: "Gold has stabilised just below the middle of its $1,170 to $1,230 channel trading just below $1,200 and has started to bounce back. Weak PMI or employment numbers out of the US could knock [the US dollar] down and boost gold."
Capital Economics said in a 29 May note: "The lure of a soaring stock market has surely dampened Chinese investors' demand for gold. Correspondingly, even though we are not predicting an imminent crash, the precious metal should benefit when enthusiasm for Chinese equities does eventually cool.
"Admittedly, developments in the advanced economies, and especially in the US, have recently had a bigger influence on the global price of gold. However, we also continue to expect a boost from an escalation of the crisis in Greece."
Gold drops
US gold futures for delivery in June finished $1.30 higher at $1,189.40 an ounce on 29 May. Prices lost over 1% for the week.
Meanwhile, reports said Austria's central bank was planning to repatriate £3.5bn of its gold reserves stored in London over the next five years.
The BoE looks after much of the world's gold as most central banks send some of their stocks to London, given the city's fame as a major international centre for gold trade. With the biggest bullion market in the world, London attracts buyers from Europe, Asia, Africa and the US.